Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Season 2013/14 has been kicked off

A plot of estimated squad transfer values (via transfermarkt.de) and championship probablilities (via betbrain.com) looks a little bit comforting (although Google Spreadsheets has deleted the FC Copenhagen legend in the bottom right).

Error bars of 25% have been slapped on the squad value estimates.

The graphical league tables I always do can be drawn already. Well, there are no division by zero errors. But it's even stupider than normally.
After one round played those who win are to the left with a gap from 0 to 2 points, the teams that drew in the middle and the teams that lost to the right with gaps from to 97 to 99 points. This method doesn't make us smarter yet.

Since the graph is drawn automatically below is a dynamically updated version. If sources change it will display rubbish.
Who to watch for this season? Heard a TV commentator, a former pro player and a coach predict the team of the season (hubris alert) on the radio. All three had Lars Jacobsen on the right back. Two had Ragnar Sigurdsson in the central defense. Igor Vetokele, Nicolai Jørgensen and Johan Wiland were mentioned once each.


Obviously it will also be interesting to see Olof Mellberg who joined on a free transfer. And if some of the young players will get their break through.

Who to look for in the other teams? Perhaps midfielder Martin Vingaard who was just sold from Copenhagen to FC Nordsjælland. Now he should get the space and time to manifest. Left back Patrick Mtiliga also of FC Nordsjælland. Central defender Lasse Nielsen of AaB. Midfielder Kasper Kusk also of AaB. Plus striker Ronnie Schwartz Nielsen of Randers FC. According to the above mentioned experts and impressions of the first round.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Final standing analysis 2012/13

Better late than never. It's been about seven weeks since the last game of last season. But before (possibly) picking up on looking towards season 2013/14, a quick look at last season is by now "tradition" (see 2011/12, 2010/11, 2009/10, and 2008/09).

#ClubWDLGFGA+/-Clean sheetsNo goals
1FC København18**114***62*32*30***96
2FC Nordsjælland17*97*60*3723*135
3Randers FC157113642-61211
4Esbjerg fB138123832*616**11
5AaB1381251465810
6FC Midtjylland1211105147482***
7AGF1181450491711
8SønderjyskE125**165357-44*9
9Brøndby IF912**123945-6710
10OB108155259-796
11AC Horsens8*101531**49-181213
12Silkeborg8*718*3866**-28**2**13

Despite the lead of only 5 points to no. 2, FC Nordsjælland, I was beginning to feel very confident as early as mid April. The very low number of lost games (4) and solid plus score (+30) speaks volumes as well.

Much better than last season. Nowhere near as dominant as the two seasons before that. One main different being the coach, Ariel Jacobs.

A few notable player stats via nipserstat.dk: In most games César Santin (45), most full 90 minutes games and most minutes played: Ragnar Sigurdsson (40 and 3838), most goals Andreas Cornelius (20), most assists Nicolai Jørgensen (10).

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Copenhagen Files

I love football and I love the Internet. Copenhagen Files is a playground of mine for the latter and a billboard of the former. The focus is on FC København - the #1 club in Copenhagen and Denmark.

I watch every single FC København game - aways usually on the Danish TV, home games currently from my season ticket seat at Parken Stadium. Every now and then a report from the nearby training pitches are to be expected. Or perhaps just from the supporter environment at local parks or bars ;-)

I also like to bet on games which usually takes place online these days. Therefore, I gather numbers and look at them; I analyze, twist, turn and play with them. And some of them ends up here as my probability assessments. But this blog is not about betting.

In the right hand column I collect every single relevant link you can think of. I actually use it for bookmarks often - perhaps they will prove handy to you too? They should easily guide you to the latest info on injuries, club economy, squad value etc.